Monday, October 04, 2010

Handicapping The Election

With the general election only days away, I'm going to gaze into my admittedly cloudy crystal ball and make a few predictions on the outcome. Please understand these are NOT endorsements — either by me personally, or the Business Journal — but rather unscientific assessments of the candidate's chances, their campaigns, and how they will fare based on pragmatic observations of the economic climate, established voting patterns, and a whole lot of other factors — including gut feeling.

I have also updated some of the comments as new information has come to light, and will continue to do so as we get closer to election day if it's necessary.

U.S. Senate: This is one that could go either way. However, poll numbers show that Republican Dino Rossi is aggressively on the rise, and if he can raise enough money to get his message across on enough TV stations statewide, he could pull it off. Murray's blatantly dishonest TV ads, as noted in both  Seattle Times and Tacoma New Tribune editorials, have worked against her as well. If Democratic incumbent Patty Murray does win, it will be by a slim margin.

U.S. Congress — 1st District: Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee will win in a district dominated by liberals. His challenger, James Watkins, is a fiscal conservative, but the bottom line is this is a heavily Democratic district, and unless there is a major philosophical revolt, the numbers are against him.

U.S. Congress — 6th District: Norm Dicks of course. Due to the state of the economy and the mood of the country, coupled with the president's policies and rapid shift to the left, perennial Republican candidate Doug Cloud probably has his best shot ever at Norm, but Dicks is still going to win , and win comfortably — although not by the usual huge margin he's used to. I'm sure Norm is paying attention to the message his constituents are sending him.

State House — 23rd District: Democratic incumbent Sherry Appleton has been AWOL from the campaign trail, but will still prevail. She has the benefit of incumbency, name familiarity, tons of state employee and other union and special interest money at her disposal, as well as her usual strong tribal support. Republican Pete DeBoer would make a terrific legislator — he's pragmatic, a successful businessman, and has government experience based on his years with the Port of Kingston. However, based on the sheer number of Democrats in that district, coupled with the traditional Democratic funding sources supporting Appleton, his chances of actually winning don't bode well for him. Too bad for Kitsap.

State House — 23rd District: Christine Rolfes will go back to Olympia for another term. If she had an  actually credible opponent, she might have a fight on her hands. However her opponent, James Olson — AKA BainbridgeClearCut in the local blogs — has probably pissed off more people he hasn't even met then he actually knows personally.

State Senate — 26th District:
Incumbent Senator Derek Kilmer will easily win. For the most part, he has voted the wishes of his constituents, including opposing the repeal of I-960 and the state budget. From a personal standpoint, let me say that Kilmer has been a terrific friend to the City of Port Orchard. His opponent, Republican Marty McClendon, has not shown a great grasp of the issues facing the 26th, the state, or much else. He speaks in non-specific sound bite platitudes, because when pressed for facts, he usually gets them wrong, and does it with an arrogant attitude besides. On another personal note, I've also found his blatant use of his young son's leukemia as a campaign sympathy grabber to be offensive. I wouldn't wish that on anyone, much less a child, and my heart goes out to the McClendon family for their strength of character in dealing with it. But this should remain a personal family issue.

State House — 26th District: Incumbent Jan Angel should return to Olympia in an easy victory. Based on what I've seen of her opponent, Democrat Sumner Schoenike, he appears to be an avid supporter of bigger state government and a state income tax to pay for it. That kind of thinking doesn't resonate too well in the 26th. Also, Schoenike hasn't shown a very good grasp of the issues facing the district because he hasn't lived there long enough to actually understand them.

State House — 26th District: This could go either way. Democratic incumbent Larry Seaquist has done a good job for the 26th, and like Kilmer, has voted the wishes of his district for the most part, opposing the budget and the repeal of I-960. And as a Democrat, he's also been a breath of fresh air about the ferry system and all that's wrong with it — including the stranglehold the unions have on it — a bold position for a Democrat. His opponent, Republican Doug Richards, is an engaging, likable, thoughtful, pragmatic challenger whose primary numbers are a rightful concern for Democrats. This race will be won or lost on the doorstep, depending on how many doors each candidate can knock on between now and election day.

State Senate — 35th District: Incumbent Tim Sheldon will win handily. Nothing more to say about it.

State House — 35th District: Democratic incumbent Fred Finn should win. He's done a good job, voting pragmatically and thoughtfully, usually doing what's right, as opposed to what the traditional Democratic constituencies that bankroll the party in a highly liberal district demand. His opponent, Linda Simpson, can work a crowd, and has lots of enthusiasm, but smacks of being way too close to the radical right for the voters in that district.

State House — 35th District: Republican challenger Dan Griffey will upset longtime incumbent Kathy Haigh in a fairly close matchup. Haigh has always voted with the liberal majority in the legislature and makes no apologies for it. She touts her support for education, and was bought and paid for by the teacher's union long ago. However, Griffey's message about fiscal responsibility and less regulation in a district decimated by environmental regulatory overkill relating to its main employer — the timber industry — and suffering some of the highest unemployment levels in the state, is resonating deeply.

Kitsap County Commissioner: Another one that could go either way. I personally work with incumbent Democrat Josh Brown on a number of local boards, and it's no secret that when he was elected, at 24 years old I didn't support him, and was in fact, very vocal in my non-support. That said, in working with him, while we don't always agree on things, I have found Josh to be a quick study, smart, pragmatic, and usually prepared for whatever is coming his way. His challenger, Abby Burlingame, who spent time on the staff of the Washington Policy Center, is also very smart, personable, quick on her feet, and not afraid to reach out when she needs help and/or information. At 31, she has both business experience and what seems like an extraordinary amount of common sense. Bottom line: Kitsap isn't going to get hurt no matter who wins this one.   

Kitsap County Prosecutor: Democratic incumbent Russ Hague will win re-election over challenger Bruce Danielson in a squeaker. The legal establishment has closed ranks behind Hague — in spite of his self-inflicted shotgun blast to the foot over the Kitsap Rifle and Revolver Club lawsuit. To many voters, that suit has all the appearances of a personal vendetta against a constitutionally-savvy non-lawyer who has kicked Hague's ass in court three times in the past decade. But in spite of the thousands of local gun owners who view this as nothing more than a personal vendetta, the shear number of local Democrats will pull it out for the incumbent.

Kitsap County Coroner: Republican Greg Sandstrom should win easily. There's no reason to make a change, and most voters are pretty apathetic about this anyway.

I will handicap the ballot initiatives in a separate post in the next couple of days


  1. Anonymous9:41 PM

    James Watkins is challenging Jay Inslee. He is a great candidate and has a ton of support. The information is getting loud and clear that the democrats have a spending disorder that is devastating our economy. I find it hard to accept that defeat is a certainty for many of these new candidates. Pete Deboer is the best candidate for LD 23 far more inviting to represent us than Appleton who, like Inslee, supports our economic demise. Your views have only strengthened the resolve of the many citizens of all party preferences who are no longer willing to tolerate being ignored by our so called representatives. We plan to do all we can to make the kind of change we desperately need here and across this beleaguered nation.

  2. Anonymous10:16 PM

    Shame on you Mr. Coppola! You owe the McClendon family an apology....have you dealt with cancer in your life? Obviously you have a mean spirit and need grace.

  3. You are an assumptive jerk regarding Marty McLendon and his family! You know nothing of his high character nor of his family. You should be ashamed of yourself.

  4. Mr.Coppola,

    First of all, you should have spelled my last name right. It's McClendon, not McLendon. Secondly, I have shared your editorial with our son and he is offended as I am by your comments. I am angry and appauled that you think that you have the right to mention my son's battle with Leukemia in your so called editorial. You have over stepped the boundaries of appropriate behavior, you lack respect and have obviously shown a lack of common decency that should be in a Public Leader such as yourself as Mayor of Port Orchard. You have made a spectacle of your position by making such comments and you have greatly offended me as a mother and I feel that you have shown a severe lack of respect for those who have or are fighting Cancer and their families. I find it extremely appauling that you lack sensitivity and again decency by mentioning your small thoughts on our family and my son's fight with Leukemia. You have NO right Mr. Coppola, none what so ever to mention my son's fight with Leukemia in your editorial. By the way, Mr. Coppola, my husband has every right to mention it during his campaign especially when it is defending our family and defending what we have gone through over the last 5 years with our son and daughters. You however are not allowed to do so just to defend yourself or your friends in Politics. I expect a public apology soon.

    Lyn McClendon

  5. Brenda Sutton10:46 PM

    Sir, your personal attack on the McClendon family if biased and uncalled for. You know nothing of the sufferings of this child and his family. I sincerelyhope you will apologize to them with sincerity. I saw no other personal comments in your "article" which makes this appear as a very personal attack on that family. Not very many families would suffer such challenges with the faith, grace and love that they have. Whatever your issues with the candidate leave his family out of it.

  6. Anonymous10:52 PM

    Mr. Coppola,

    Regarding your personal note on the McClendon Family: I believe that his experience as a medical professional and as the father of a child who has a serious medical condition, gives him every right to talk about that. Besides, these ARE major issues facing our district and the STATE when the medical reform begins to take effect! I do not believe he is using his experiences as a "sympathy grabber" for votes! Shame on you!!

  7. Michelle Webb11:12 PM

    Marty McLendon and his family do not deserve such a disgusting synopsis from you. You are definately living in a different world than the rest of us. Having a child with leukemia or any other challenge is part of who we are as parents. Is he supposed to keep this a secret? It's his strenth to deal with such a challenge that makes him have more integrity than many of the other "politicians". You should be ashamed at this attack on Marty's family. You have taken things too far in this blog.
    Michelle Webb RN

  8. Anonymous11:23 PM

    listen to it, it just might be talking about you coppola and your blindness to humanmankind.

    You missed the mark here about the McClendon family most likely since you are in bed with kilmer. You publically denounced McClendon from the race without ever meeting him. Went so far to state he should have came and found you to introduce himself. Well, I've seen you at several events where he was too. I've watched as you have strutted around like a proud peacock and to make your point....just walked on by without ever stopping to introduce yourself. You truly act as if you are a king and one must bow at your presence.

    You should know that McClendon speaks highly of his son and his fight. That he is an inspiration to him not a gadget or prop to be used. Yet you forget to publically ridicule kilmer for running out on his District for fundraising and taking it to a business in Seattle rather than supporting those business' of the 26th. You fail to ridicule him for his lack of business support on votes...F- from both the AWB and NFIB. I guess you are too focused on "handicapping" the races when you are blind to facts. Rather than hammer McClendon untruthfully, why not hammer kilmer if you really were reporting without bias for his votes and backstabbing actions. But hey, I guess it is easier to throw spears at someone for loving his family so much that he is willing to share his life publically with folks. Showing them they are human just like the next guy. That they know and understand hardship just like those of the 26th. I challenge you coppola to stand up for the citizens and report on kilmer all that he has and is doing wrong. Can you set aside your pride and be the leading influence you should and could be? You try to hide your thoughts and views from your public seat as the City of Port Orchard's Mayor. You can not. You are still the same person. With that you have a public responsibility. What you say as a journalist can not and should not be seperated from the being Mayor. You are both and unseperable. Nor will it be. My opinion, you owe the McClendon's an apology. Both as an individual and the Mayor. Intentionally hurting a family (especially one that has done nothing to you) is unthinkable.

  9. Anonymous11:43 PM

    On a personal note, Id kick your ass if you mentioned my ailing kid as a "sympathy vote". Thats not cool, classy or very intelligent. I cant see any poor sick kid being described as a "campaign tool". Best to apologize to the family, asap.

  10. Wow, it amazes me how quickly a man who appears so educated can easily slip and fall so quickly in his judgment of others. Not to mention you might also check your blog for spelling errors before posting. Do not worry I am not even able to vote in your district or your state but if I was able to I can tell you one thing. MARTY MCCLENDON is a man of integrity, resilience, and strength. HE IS REAL, a true family man who has lived, and is forthcoming in the trials and tribulations that all communities share in, been through and supported each other through. He knows what it is like to struggle, what it is like to have to earn it; he is one of the people. What scares you, Mr. Coppola about Marty is that he is a real live person who has worked up and hard to get where he is and it comes with integrity. IF anyone is listening, you will not find a more sincere, honest and truly loving family man and let us not forget his wife Lynn whom I have known my entire life and if you want a real woman behind the man in the senate, it is Lynn! You will never meet a more honest, sincere, and genuine woman, who will continue to amaze and bend over backwards for family. The main thing is that Marty and Lynn both know what family means, it starts at home with a loving couple and their children, but what we all know is that family is community and taking care of our community is extremely important to him. One thing you can be thankful for is that his father raised him to care about his family, community and the future of his country. God Bless him, this is a huge job to undertake, and one that needs good honest people to bring it back around.
    Mr. Coppola, I think you should really think before you type and defiantly use your spell check, but most of all apologize and in the future, debate like a man, this isn’t grade school anymore and being a bully isn’t becoming of a man who appears to be so educated. It is insulting, to yourself.

  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

  12. Yvonne Blankenship4:02 PM

    Mr Coppola: I read your blog and am totally blown away that you as Mayor of Port Orchard would make an outrageous assumption that Mr. McClendon would use his son's illness as a "campaign tool".. you are SICK! I don't believe this to be the case and would say that he has every right to share with the public HIS family struggle to demonstrate that they face challenges just like many other families and they choose to face it head on. Shame on you!! An apology for your assumption is in order.

  13. Obviously, the McClendon supporters are all readers. Thank you :)

    To address your comments... First off, I do apologize about the initial misspelling of Mr. McClendon's name. It has been corrected.

    And if all of you who have overacted to my comments about Marty McClendon's son will take a moment to actually re-read that portion of the post, you will see where it said, "I wouldn't wish that on anyone, much less a child, and my heart goes out to his family for their strength of character in dealing with it. But it should be a personal family issue, not a campaign tool."

    Mr. McClendon, in his standard campaign speech, which I have personally witnessed about 4 different times now — including moderating one forum where he appeared — never fails to mention his son's condition. And I have no problem with that, as it gives the audience a glimpse of who he is and what he's all about. But that's where it needs to stop. However, when questioned about campaign issues, he never fails to find a way to somehow work it in — usually more than once — even when it isn't particularly relevant to the questions being asked. THAT'S what I find both objectionable and inappropriate. His son's illness is a family issue, not a political one, and it should remain just that. I'm sorry if that offends some of you, but raising my 6 year-old grandson, I "get it" about kids, and what should appropriately remain personal.

    Also, while a number of you have chastised me about what I don't know about Mr. McClendon, let me ask you the same thing — how much do YOU actually KNOW about Mr. McClendon's background and finances? Perhaps a detailed public records search would be educational.

    Finally, Mr. McClendon has never taken the time to personally introduce himself — or to even speak to me for that matter — although he's had numerous opportunities to do so at the public events where we have both been in attendance. And the last time I checked, my phone still worked. I would think that as the Mayor of a City he hopes to represent, he would have taken the time long before now to learn what our concerns are. All the other candidates and incumbents had done so long ago. As the author of a well-read local political column, as well as this blog, I would also think he'd want to introduce himself and express his views. It could have possibly resulted in some favorable coverage.

    He has has not bothered to do either. That makes we wonder if he's elected, if it isn't an indicator of how he will do his job, and of how he will react to the very people who elected him.

    Senator Kilmer reached out to meet with me almost as soon as I was elected. He has went out of his way to be helpful, and has been a good friend to my City. I have had absolutely NO indication from Mr. McClendon that would be the case if he's elected, because he can't be bothered to even take the time to pick up the phone. So those of you who say I don't "know" Mr. McClendon are absolutely correct — and now you know why.

    And just for the record, on his first run for the House, the Business Journal endorsed Senator Kilmer's opponent.

  14. And in response to those without the cojones to even sign their names while taking uneducated cheap shots...

    Yes, I have dealt with cancer in my life — my mother and father both died of it. My mother from inoperable pancreatic cancer, and my father after a long, painful bout with a particularly vicious form of colon cancer that disfigured his body. I spent almost two years running back and forth to Florida to take care of him, deal with his medical insurance issues, keep his business running until it could be sold to help pay his medical expenses — while my own business here suffered — and finally act as executor of his estate.

    I have also lost some close friends to it, including a brother in law who is dying of terminal, inoperative cancer right now.

    Yes, I have dealt with cancer in my life. So while you are too scared to even sign your names to your vitriol, perhaps you should know a little more before you lash out.

  15. Anonymous6:54 AM

    Coppola, it is not the point whether you think you were not being hurtful or damaging. The point is is that you have been informed that you did. With that you should apologize.

    Instead you have deflected as what we have become to know and see from politicians. You did not take ownership of creating pain. You stated the reader were wrong and continued further with how Mr. McClendon was wrong.

    You like anyone and especially being the Mayor can at anytime pick up the phone too. Why do you demand that it should be a one way street. To vocalize like a spoiled child screaming that johnny will not give him the toy when johnny already had it....does not show much as a leader of a City. It is deplorable. Why coppola as a leader being at these events did you not approach him? You laid down the gauntlet months ago chastising the man for not doing so. You divided the road of introductions. You therefor should have crossed the barrier you placed before you two and made amends. But hey you are King Coppola, High and Mighty Mayor of Port Orchard.

    Your actions contradict your views of conservatism that you try to display. Your words and actions are that of a liberal looking to blame everyone else and take no responsibility for anything. Aim, blame and run.

    You have been chastised by many. Dispel all other categories of information. Clear it away and see the common thread here. You intentionally went out of your way to pen an article that attacked a family. A family who have placed themselves at the core of the people to serve them. To represent them with honor, integrity and trust. Yet, you stooped to mudslinging. The common thread here coppola was you owe them an apology.

    As far as others not putting down their name? Why should they. You would only go on to deflect and mire them into the mud as you see fit. You would not stay the course of why they wrote in the first place. As they say the pen is mightier than the sword. You use it as you well please. Even in error.

    The one thing I'm looking forward to (since you are a man of integrity correct?) is your dirt throwing on kilmer. Do a story on his down falls. Write how he tells a story different then the truth. Write how he has failed his district with his voting record. Write how he slapped the district business' in the face by going to Seattle business' to hold his fund raising. If you are going to be a legit journalist, cover both equally. You will not. Why? You are in bed with kilmer, his lies and deceitfulness.

    Maybe coppola the voting public of Port Orchard should look further into your life and what you have done. Especially costing the City tax payers more money with your spending. Hmm, looks like the over spending of kilmer has worn off on you. Maybe kilmer actually put you up to this. Maybe you are his puppet and are doing this by his direction.

    Lets see where was I? Oh ya, you owe them an apology. Period. Man up and do so. Drop your pride, ego and do it. Be humble and do the right thing. Just apologize to the offended party. Do so without deflecting or justifying.

  16. I noticed you didn't have the intestinal fortitude to sign your name...

    So let's the facts right first off...

    It was not my intention to hurt anyone, and if that occurred, I ask the McClendon family to please accept my apologies.

    However, this was not a personal attack, but a simple observation. I'm not blaming anyone for anything as you have stated. The last time I checked, this was still America, and I have the right to express my opinion — and unlike you, I'm not afraid to sign my name to it.

    As for Mr. McClendon's refusal to even introduce himself...
    It has nothing to do with being a spoiled child as you seem to think, but as a political candidate, it is simply a matter of long-established tradition and protocol that it's incumbent upon the candidate to do so. And as any smart candidate knows, the press can help you if you let them.

    Finally, as to your charges that my spending has cost the taxpayers money. I take personal exception to such an inane, obviously partisan — not to mention uninformed — charge.

    Port Orchard is the ONLY City in Kitsap (not to mention the County) that is NOT in financial trouble. We will finish 2010 in the black — without dipping into reserves (which we are in fact adding to) just as we have done every year I've been Mayor — even though the City was hemorrhaging money when I was elected.

    YTD, we are running approximately $150,000 ahead of revenue collection projections for the year. We have not furloughed or laid off any employees, cut any services, delayed or canceled any capital projects, and we're still open for business 5 days a week.

    Additionally, we have cut crime more than in half, with violent crime down over 65 percent. When I was elected, we were Number 6 on the list of most violent crimes for Cities our size. We are now not even in the top 30. Port Orchard is safer now than at any time in the past quarter of a century.

    We have grown the City in both physical size and population — by about 25 percent, without growing the size of the government. We have added only 5 employees — 2 policeman and 3 others which were necessary to operate the stormwater utility we were mandated by the federal and state governments to create.

    And we have done all this WITHOUT RAISING TAXES. We didn't impose the allowable one percent property tax in the last budget, and probably won't in this one.

    So obviously, you don't know Jack about how I run my City. If you did, you wouldn't be making such stupidly partisan statements.

  17. Gordy Fowlds11:14 PM

    Thank you Lary - You are dead on with regards to these elections. I personally am not a fan of Rossi, but your handicapping was superb.

    Thanks also for your support of Jan angel, Larry Seaquist and Derek Kilmer. You truly are an independent we need more of them.

  18. Web logs (blogs) can be a dangerous place. I'm not going to comment on spelling errs because they aren't as important as content and I make them myself. And I'm not going to complain about the McClendon misstep other than it seems to reflect a bit of naiveté and lack of any concern for the impact of his writing. Others have covered this.

    What really drives me to publish a comment here is the shallow and cynical analysis published to the public domain just weeks prior to a pivotal election by someone who is a community and business leader. These comments will influence outcomes. I expect more from leadership than this.

    To be fair, Lary Coppola introduces his entry in the context of personal instincts but the nature of his commentary seems more appropriate to a private game of poker. He seems to have very little savvy about the secondary impacts, and influences his readers without any substantive discussion of actual issues. These campaigns are not over yet. This kind of rhetoric from a political leader is premature and may actually work against his cause with such poor analysis. Let me show you a couple of clear indicators of what is "epic fail" in Coppola's analysis.

    Prior to correcting his content for the WA-01 race (nice to be the publisher), Coppola cynically indicated in his analysis that he didn't even know who James Watkins was. In his corrected version, Coppola still fails to acknowledge the country is indeed in a huge philosophical revolt against unsustainable spending, overwhelming public debt and high unemployment. Independents are the key. More than half the country would repeal Obama care and the Tea Party movement was born in the PNW. What is it that Coppola doesn't see in this as a political revolt and tight race. When you consider the primary swing only needs to be 6% during an election that anticipates low Democrat and youth enthusiasm... this is an incredibly competitive race. Coppola's premature comments on the Watkins-Inslee race are poorly timed at best, especially from an allegedly conservative leader.

    In the Rolfes-Olsen race for WA-23, Coppola's doesn't even attempt to address issues and centers entirely on the presumption of personal relationships. Olsen's Bainbridge relationships may indeed be local distracters but without balance against actual fiscal positions that independents care about, the analysis is very shallow. I'm left to believe Coppola has a personal vendetta against James Olsen because his analysis of Appleton-DeBoer was softened. In truth, Pete DeBoer is probably the most humble guy I know (and I have the courage to openly endorse him), but his personality is not the only thing that secures the vote. In both of these races Democrat and Republican positions are completely polarized. For example, Rolfes and Appleton are progressives who voted to overturn I-960 and support a new State Income Tax (I-1098). Olsen and DeBoer are fiscal conservatives who would bring a new prioritization to government spending and would not support a new State Income tax. No analysis from Coppola on any of this, and much more.

    I could go on but readers probably get the point.

    Public personalities like Lary Coppola should be more circumspect in their comments before publishing to the public. What they write and say influences outcomes and affects the political landscape significantly (including his own). Were this a blog entry from someone of more anonymous stature, it could be forgiven as an individual perspective that rolls into the mix. But it wasn't. I encourage Coppola to consider constructive activism as a more productive strategy than locker room chatter.

    And yes, by the way... I am happy to identify myself and will hope to introduce myself to Lary at our next common meeting. I am a Kingston resident, contributor to the Washington State blog Palousitics, and can be followed @KingstonJW on Twitter. Feel free to join me in the conversation because sharing real information now will help us all in the future.

  19. I think you are way over-analyzing.

    These are simply my personal observations on the probable outcome, with a brief commentary as to why I see things the way I do. Nothing more, nothing less. And as I stated in the second sentence, they certainly AREN'T endorsements.

    I also believe you overestimate my influence on the voters. Most of the folks who have commented here — and the McClendon supporters are an excellent example — have obviously made their decisions already. My opinions on the outcome aren't going to change their minds. All they will do is made some of those folks angry, while just annoying others.

    It seems you, as well as some others here, have mistaken me for a die-hard conservative. I am not. I am a fiscal conservative, and a social moderate — an independent voter who supports candidates I believe will support and vote for things I believe in. You can find my political leanings detailed at

    As for this election being a pivotal one — we agree. However, I believe as a commentator, it's incumbent upon me to be pragmatic, not ideological. James Watkins is NOT going to beat Jay Inslee. It doesn't mean we wouldn't be better off if he did — it just means that in my analysis, he won't. That's based upon the sheer number of Democrats populating the 1st District, how many voted in the past few elections, and how many are likely to vote this time. They are the same folks who will vote for Patty Murray in one of the most heavily Democratic districts in the state.

    As for James Olson, I have no personal vendetta against him. I've only met him briefly a couple of times. However, from what I've seen of him in three candidate forums (one of which I moderated), and noting what he has written over the years on the local blogs, it's painfully obvious he's somewhere to the right of Attila The Hun. His views don't even begin to align with the majority of voters in that district. That's why I said if Rolfes actually had a credible opponent, she could have a fight on her hands.

    Same with Sherry Appleton. I've known Pete DeBoer for years, and like him personally. I was one of the first customers of his business. I'd like to see him win, as I believe he would be a better, more pragmatic and open minded legislator than Appleton, and I would be pleased if I was wrong about the probable outcome. But the numbers in that district are against him. It's just that simple.

    Finally, you accuse me of not even attempting to address the issues in this election, or how the candidates will impact, or be impacted by them. Like I said in the beginning, you're way over-analyzing. This was never meant to be a commentary on the issues — it is about the probable outcomes of these races, and why I believe what the results will be. Nothing else. End of story.

  20. Agree with much of your predictions lary. Sorry to those who were offended. Is understandable when people put their names out on a ballot , you become sensitive to issues and even closer to your family members because of it .

    The prosecutor debate went national on a TownHall editorial

  21. lary there is a strange thing happening with the Olsen /Rolfes election . I don't believe Rolfes is involved , always seemed like a stand up lady to me . But some of her very liberal supporters Started a web called Character Counts . But the host will not allow him or herself to be named . Not exactly anyone being held accountable to the information flowing , and the comments and energy is now being used to attack other candidates . From Watkins , Danielson, Rossi , etc . All republicans or conservative minded people get attacked , all liberal minded people are honest and stand up folks . Of course this is not a partsian web . ;0)Notice some names of political elected and those going for office also have comments or are on the like section of the web. . I remember a dirty politics web page called FireEndresen years ago , but the Sun took it to task as it should have. We have the PDC and other methods of keeping folks honest , not un named web pages. I figured Rolfs and Appelton will win with about 57 percent , but the dirt and mud remain after the election . NK is not really a healthy community these days.

  22. Craig Peterson10:17 AM

    Mick, why do you have a problem with a facebook page which basically reprints things James himself has posted?
    Did you happen to listen to the "interview" from Outlaw Kitsap, that is prominently displayed on the site? This was not an interview, but a campaign speech in which Olsen again ran his mouth unchecked against Rolfes. It was shameful journalism at best, yet it is sponsored by Kitsapsun. That to me is much worse than an anonymous facebook page.

    Also, I did not see anything about Rossi or other races mentioned, besides a post from Character Counts to remind people of the candidates forum for Inslee and Watkins.
    I have read your comments for years on as "littleroundtop" and have not agreed 100% but have always thought you were fair. I don't think you are being fair now.

  23. Anonymous10:41 AM

    Lary, I read your predictions as just that. I don't like some of them. I am not mad that you don't think Doug Cloud will win. He probably won't and it isn't because of your Independent blog. It is because People in this District love the pork he brings home and that he is "powerfull"!
    I would also like to point out that this is NOT Lary's City blog. This is a blog that he has on his own on his own time. When you bring up that he is Mayor and attack him about it he responds but other than that I do not see him use it for that matter.
    I will say that since it has been brought up, Lary is the best Mayor this town and Kitsap County have seen in years. We are lucky to have him whatever your political leanings are. Kim Abel was nice but not as effective or efficient as Lary.
    Please if you don't like his blogs, just don't read them.

    Dan Smallwood

  24. Thank you Dan — you obviously "get it" about what the post was meant to be, and that these are observations about the probable results — not endorsements.

    One change... As things have evolved, I now believe Pete DeBoar has an even chance of beating Sherry Appleton. He's working hard, and seems to be making a great deal of headway with voters in that district. She is still outfunding him, but as the final days of voting are upon us, I believe Pete just may be able to pull it off.

    Finally, thanks for pointing out this blog is my personal opinions on issues and NOT related to my job as Mayor. I also sincerely appreciate your kind words about the job I'm doing.